These countries may not be able to survive more than 40 days if the Hormuz oil supply is cut off.

2026-03-18 10:24:21 

Despite recent reports that some oil tankers are still passing through the Strait of Hormuz, the flow of oil tankers has plummeted, and the estimated volume of oil passing through the strait is clearly continuing to decline rapidly, based on the trend over the past two weeks.

With 17 million barrels of oil unable to be shipped out daily, nearly 7 million barrels per day of production capacity in the Middle East has been forced to shut down.

The current oil flow is about 500,000 barrels per day, which is 19.5 million barrels per day less than the historical average.

Which countries will be the first to succumb?

More than 13 million barrels of oil per day are imported into Asia through the Strait of Hormuz, accounting for 50% of the region’s total imports.

China, India, South Korea, and Japan are the four major buyers.

Philippines, Myanmar, and Vietnam: Reserves can only last for about 30 days.

India and South Korea: The buffer can only last for about 70 days.

Japan: High dependence, but strong reserve capacity.

Structural Dilemma: The Problem Goes Beyond Crude Oil

Many Southeast Asian countries hold a certain amount of crude oil reserves, but have almost no refined oil inventory.

Singapore relies on the Gulf region for 680,000 barrels of crude oil per day, but its refined product supply chain is also strained.

Reduced LPG shipments from the UAE and Qatar have boosted the propane market, impacting the entire petrochemical industry.