Spring Planting Price Inquiry: An Observation of the Supply and Price Stability in Hunan Market Amid Fluctuations in International Fertilizer Prices

Spring plowing is in full swing, and agricultural supplies are of paramount importance. As a major grain-producing area, the adequacy and price stability of fertilizer supply in Hunan directly affect the annual harvest of millions of farmers. Given the current international fertilizer market’s frequent fluctuations due to factors such as geopolitical conflicts, what is the current state of the Hunan spring plowing fertilizer market?

The market remained generally stable, with prices rising moderately.

Overall, since the start of spring plowing this year, the fertilizer market in Hunan has had a generally sufficient supply, with prices rising slightly.

According to the latest market monitoring data from the Hunan Provincial Department of Commerce, the average selling price of fertilizers in the province last week was 2,676.97 yuan/ton, up 1.0% week-on-week. Although it is down 1.8% compared to the same period last year, it has risen for two consecutive weeks since March, with a cumulative increase of 2.8%. By type, the average selling price of nitrogen fertilizer was 2,264.24 yuan/ton, up 3.1% week-on-week and down 9.2% year-on-year; the average selling price of ternary compound fertilizer was 3,089.69 yuan/ton, down slightly by 0.5% week-on-week and up 4.4% year-on-year.

From a supply and demand perspective, Hunan’s total fertilizer demand for spring planting is estimated at approximately 2.1 million tons from January to May this year, with peak demand reaching 1.6 million tons during the March-May period. On the supply side, thanks to the stable operation of the national and provincial fertilizer commercial reserve mechanisms and the early progress of winter stockpiling, current supplies are ample.

As of early March, the total fertilizer supply available in Hunan Province through the province’s supply and marketing cooperative system reached 1.6832 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 14.5%, with another 140,900 tons en route. Overall, the province’s fertilizer supply is considered sufficient to meet the concentrated fertilizer needs of spring farming.

It is worth noting that, according to a statement released by the China Agricultural Inputs Circulation Association, the national commercial fertilizer reserves for the 2025-2026 season will be actively released into the market before the end of March to meet the concentrated fertilizer demand during the spring planting season. This marks the first time in nearly 10 years that the national reserves have initiated a release mechanism during the peak spring planting season.

With the gradual release of national reserves, market supply has been further replenished. From the raw material perspective, the current market is showing a divergent trend: phosphorus-based raw materials are experiencing a significant upward trend due to rising international sulfur prices; nitrogen-based raw materials are fluctuating within a narrow range; and potash fertilizer prices are holding steady at high levels. The cost support for compound fertilizer raw materials remains, and some fertilizer companies may follow suit with price increases or implement new prices in early April.

Domestic demand release and international cost transmission coexist.

The slight increase in fertilizer prices in Hunan this time is the result of the combined effect of concentrated demand for fertilizer during spring plowing and the transmission of international fertilizer raw material costs.

Within the province, as temperatures rise, demand for fertilizers for spring plowing is accelerating. According to agricultural data, spring plowing accounts for approximately 50% of the annual fertilizer usage, with the peak purchasing and application period expected from mid-March to April. This strong supply and demand is providing some support for prices.

More pervasive pressure comes from the international raw materials market. Hunan is a major fertilizer-consuming province, but it lacks local production capacity for core raw materials such as urea and potash, relying heavily on imports from other provinces or even indirect imports. For example, the international price of sulfur, a key raw material for phosphate fertilizer, has risen sharply due to geopolitical conflicts, and cost pressures are being transmitted along the industrial chain.

Although the prices of fertilizers circulating in the province have not yet fluctuated drastically, if the prices of energy such as coal and natural gas continue to rise in the international market, the production costs of products such as urea may be increased in the future, and this potential risk cannot be ignored.

Supply and price stability demonstrate resilience, with institutional innovation serving as a “ballast.”

Faced with concerns in the international market and stable domestic prices, Hunan has strengthened its defenses for spring farming by reshaping its reserve mechanism and coordinating efforts among multiple departments.

Since the significant fluctuations in international fertilizer prices in 2022, Hunan Province has systematically restructured its fertilizer reserve mechanism. Starting in 2023, the province’s supply and marketing cooperative system has implemented a series of measures for several consecutive years, including establishing off-season storage mechanisms, prioritizing key areas for allocation, disclosing guidance prices, and cooperating in combating counterfeiting. By 2024, all 14 cities and prefectures in the province had established off-season fertilizer reserve systems, forming a long-term mechanism of “storing fertilizer in normal times and using it in emergencies.”

This year’s “advance preparation” is particularly evident. As early as October 2025, after launching winter storage efforts, agricultural input enterprises throughout the province’s supply and marketing system generally accelerated their stockpiling progress, resulting in a significant increase in winter stockpiles compared to the same period in previous years. In November, the Provincial Supply and Marketing Cooperative held a mobilization meeting for joint procurement and storage of fertilizers for winter. Representatives from multiple storage enterprises, upstream manufacturers, and financial institutions jointly signed a quality service commitment letter, while actively promoting the “batch procurement and staggered storage” model, thus gaining the initiative for fertilizer use during the peak season.

On February 13, just before the Spring Festival, the Hunan Provincial Development and Reform Commission convened a meeting to coordinate efforts on ensuring the supply and stabilizing the price of fertilizers for spring plowing. More than ten departments, including the Industry and Information Technology Bureau, the Transportation Bureau, the Agriculture and Rural Affairs Bureau, the All-China Federation of Supply and Marketing Cooperatives, and the Hunan Branch of the Agricultural Development Bank of China, worked together. The transportation and railway departments made every effort to ensure the smooth transport of fertilizers and raw materials, guaranteeing that supplies from other provinces could be “transferred in and delivered.” Policy banks such as the Agricultural Development Bank of China increased their comprehensive financial service support for fertilizer reserve operations and the construction of related warehousing facilities.

To ensure that the benefits of supply guarantees truly reach farmers, more than 1,200 mobile supply and marketing service vehicles travel daily through 598 townships and 4,632 administrative villages across the province. Farmers can have fertilizer delivered to their doorstep with just a phone call. Agricultural technicians on board also conduct soil testing and fertilizer application guidance to help farmers reduce costs. Meanwhile, market supervision departments have increased their inspection efforts to prevent fraudulent activities such as selling counterfeit goods and price gouging, safeguarding farmers’ finances.

Overall, fertilizer supply in Hunan Province is guaranteed this spring, with prices remaining generally stable. The advance reserve mechanism and the coordinated efforts of multiple departments played a crucial role. Relying on the “Hunan Supply and Marketing Agricultural Materials Unified Operation and Command Center” platform, a dynamic emergency inventory was established throughout the province, enabling real-time monitoring of county-level inventory, online ordering, and precise delivery. Emergency response time for agricultural materials was controlled within 24 hours, effectively building a final line of defense for fertilizer use during spring planting. However, uncertainties in the international market remain, requiring continued monitoring of future trends and prevention of the transmission risks brought about by rising imported costs.